Earlier this week, Cisco published its Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Forecast Update 2014-2019 and its VNI Mobile Forecast Highlights 2014-2019. This latest data once again confirms two trends with important implications for spectrum policy: more people using more devices and more data-heavy applications are driving more mobile traffic.
Cisco’s data makes clear that in order to meet consumers’ demand for mobile broadband, wireless companies need more licensed, exclusive use spectrum. For faster mobile networks that carry ever-increasing amounts of data, more spectrum is critical.
Take a look at how much our mobile usage increased over the last year:
- Average mobile device generated 1,503 megabytes a month in 2014, up 57% from 2013.
- Average smartphone generated 1,801 megabytes a month in 2014, up almost 40% from 2013.
![Monthly Mobile Data Traffic]()
- Average 4G smartphone generated 2,200 megabytes a month in 2014, compared to 1,201 megabytes for a non-4G smartphone.
- Wireless-enabled laptop drove 4,076 megabytes a month, compared to the average tablet’s 2,777 megabytes.
- 4G connected devices accounted for 40.6% of connections, and 72% of mobile data traffic in 2014.
If you think those numbers are impressive, take a look at the mobile usage projections four years from now:
- 4G connections will account for 90.5% of traffic.
- Total mobile data traffic will be seven times 2014’s volumes – and 220 times 2009’s – reaching 3.6 exabytes a month. That’s equal to 3,686 petabytes, or more than 3.9 trillion megabytes a month.
Wireless data traffic is exploding while mobile network speeds continue to increase:
- In 2014, the average speed was 2,619 kbps, and is expected to rise to 6,062 kbps by 2019.
- Average smartphone speed was 9,959 kbps in 2014, and is expected to rise to 20,395 kbps by 2019.
- Average 4G speed was 12,322 kbps in 2014 – three times the average 3G speed – and is expected to rise to 23,846 by 2019.
What’s driving this demand?
- Video accounted for 60% of all mobile data traffic – 317.8 petabytes a month – in 2014, and will grow almost nine times in the next five years and account for 75% of all mobile data traffic – 2.7 exabytes a month in 2019.
- Wearable devices and M2M will grow from 29.3 million wearable devices and 51 million mobile-connected M2M modules in 2014 to 170.3 million wearables and 639 million M2M modules in 2019.
- Traffic from wearables is expected to grow 19 times over the next five years, reaching 100.4 petabytes a month by 2019.
- M2M traffic is expected to grow 49 times over the next five years, reaching 277.3 petabytes a month by 2019.
There’s lots more data in Cisco’s Visual Networking Index as well as Ericsson’s Mobility Reports about wireless trends around the world, but the data make one policy implication crystal clear: while there’s a role for unlicensed spectrum, more exclusive, licensed spectrum is needed in order to meet consumers’ demand for mobile connected lives.
By moving forward on the 600 MHz broadcast incentive auction and making sure long-term spectrum planning is a priority for policymakers, we can build the wireless networks of the future that consumers demand and ensure that America remains the world’s wireless leader.